9/23/09 The Global Finnacial Crisis is not over “The global financial crisis is over. Politicians, central bankers, economists, and mainstream market commentators have jubilantly declared it so. Everything is okay again. Yet these same experts were oblivious to the looming debacle in financial markets, notwithstanding the incontrovertible evidence so glaringly obvious to those that cared to delve beyond the superficial. Why now should such unsubstantiated, historically ignorant, and fundamentally illogical conclusions be met with anything other than skepticism and guarded optimism? 9/23/09 Minyanville
5/17/09 Subprime Winner Bets on Coming Sovereign Defaults “Contrarianism aside, Bass does command respect. After all, he profited handsomely by predicting the crisis and the collapse of subprime. While such extreme pessimism may be a catalyst for a short-term rally, we should be quite concerned if Bass’ next set of predictions come true, as they would undoubtedly affect the long-term. Market Folly 5/17/09
5/03/09 The Worst Case Scenario (Somebody has to say it) “In the interests of providing you with an alternate vision—something outside the mainstream—below are ten predictions for America through the year 2012. This is not boilerplate doom-saying. Rather, I am laying out in highly specific terms what will happen over the next three-odd years. Others have thrown around the term “Depression”, but I am going to tell you precisely what it means for you, your investments, and your community.” Seeking Alpha
11/14/08 Bella Ciao Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute Renowned Trend Forcaster Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012 “Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week. Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.”
11/11/08 Trippin’ with Trip: One Man’s View of Carnage to Come Global Equities Research, Trip Chowdhry/Eric Savitz “Every month, Trip Chowdhry, the one-man band who covers all things tech under the moniker Global Equities Research, writes a piece he calls Silicon Scoop on current trends and gossip from the Valley. It’s always a good read, but this time around it is especially full of eye-opening predictions, many of them seriously distressing. It reads like Nostradamus has decided to cover the tech business. There’s so much here, it’s hard to know where to start. Anyway, in no particular order, here are some of Trip’s current prognostications: Seeking Alpha
11/05/08 Eddington Capital Management, Alex Allen: Equities Headed for ‘Cataclysmic Crash’ “At the edges where markets are liquid we’ve been willing to call the bottom. We’re bullish on equities for the next four to five months and then we expect to see the final cataclysmic downleg,” Mr. Allen said. “Equities will go to at least 50% below where they are now. It’s going to be as bad as 1929. Equity markets are extremely expensive.” Reuters
10/17/05 High Frequency Economics, Ian Shepherdson: Explaining the Coming Housing Meltdown “Our slowdown and recession story for 2006 and 2007 is substantially driven by the idea that the housing market will finally fall apart beginning next Spring…if Treasury yields continue their upward creep for another few months, things will take a serious turn for the worse.”
2/23/07 The Market Oracle, Mike Whitney: US Housing Market Crash to result in the Second Great Depression – “It’s all bad news. The global liquidity bubble is limping towards the reef and when it hits it’ll send shock-waves through the global economic system.”
4/7/08 Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Andrea James The Money Squeeze: Grab a slice of pizza to grasp economy’s woes “When people don’t have money to go out for steak and fish, they go out for pizza,” Piecora said. On March 31, his shop started “Recession Monday,” charging half price on pizzas, calzones, salads and sodas on the last Monday of the month. “Beat the recession!” the flier advertises with glee. Piecora predicts another Great Depression. “I follow all this real closely, the yen versus the U.S. dollar, the great credit crunch, hedge funds and credit-default swaps. … This mess has just started,” he said. From his standpoint on the hill, Piecora says he can see some economic changes as they happen. For example, during an economic slowdown in the 1990s, Piecora got job applications from laid-off middle managers.”
8/17/07 Puget Sound Business Journal, Dan Piecora: Shovelfuls of Money : “Applications for redemptions by hedge fund investors are closed after Aug. 15 for Sept. 30 paybacks from the tottering megafunds that are collapsing one after the other. Will über-investors be able to redeem the market calls? Will it be “The End of Hedge-World — and Wall Street — as we know it”?…Flooding the financial system with “liquidity” to wash away the recklessness of bankers that helped leverage corporate buyouts for these market manipulators is tantamount to another paycheck deduction from every single American worker making an honest buck — which is much more than can be said for the limousine passengers cruising up, and now down — and now out of — Wall Street.”
1/23/08 Prison Planet, Paul Joseph Watson: Let Market Crash Now or Face Financial Train Wreck – “The Fed’s continued obsession with slashing interest rates and printing money in order to maintain the facade of the grossly overvalued stock market while the dollar collapses is precipitating a financial holocaust. Yuppies need to cut their losses and accept a soft crash now or place the very pillars of the American economy in danger.”
2/21/08 The Motley Fool, Bill Barker: The 3 Forces Behind a Market Crash “And so there has been much generally bandied about regarding whether the market is ready for — or already in the midst of — a crash. Because if there are sound reasons to fear a market crash, then it’s time to come up with a decent alternative to sinking new money into a market that may just appear to be a little bit cheap.
9/22/08 US News & World Report Bailout Prevents Great Depression 2.0: “What would be the dollar cost of not bailing out Wall Street? Try a number north of $30 trillion. (The awful math is detailed below.) That’s why Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke were so scared last week. And, yes, I think “scared” isn’t too strong a word. You don’t think they convened an emergency nighttime meeting of congressional leaders and then walked out with something close to a blank check for a trillion bucks because they thought we were headed for an outright recession, even a fairly nasty one?”
9/24/08 Builder Online RealtyTrac: 25% Of 2008 Home Sales Will Be Foreclosures [Housing Tracker] : “We can’t afford to compete against foreclosures at 40% to 50% off.” – Richard Dugas, CEO of Pulte Homes, who acknowledged that even if foreclosures are localized—with California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada suffering the most, 40%-50% price reductions are hard to compete with.
10/3/08 Minyanville, Kevin Depew: Five Things You Need to Know: Bailout Passes, Stocks Limp ”This time is not different. In fact, it is continuing to play out almost exactly as the Great Depression did. The bottom line is that despite the bailout, risk in owning stocks has increased, not decreased. “
10/19/07 Tiger’s Robertson Sees Doody of a Recession “”I think the credit situation is worse than anybody realizes, and…I think we’re getting little inklings of that. I don’t think any of the normal indicators you would look at in the economy are really very strong. As a matter of fact, they are weak, and not really getting any better.” CNBC
8/28/2006 Peter Schiff Predicts The US Economic Collapse With Unbelievable Accuracy
11/2000 Insight Newsletter Gary Shilling has often been way ahead of the crowd in forecasting some of the recent significant trends in the economy and stocks. In the late 1990s, he predicted the demise of Internet stocks leading to a U.S. and global recession. He made these forecasts at a time when the U.S. economy was booming and the stock market was soaring. In November 2000, he forecast that the Dow would eventually drop below 8000, the Nasdaq would lose 70% to 80% of its value and the S&P 500 would be cut in half. The 2000-2002 bear market dropped the Dow 35%, the Nasdaq, 78% and the S&P 500, 49%. And, of course, Gary was nearly alone for several years in recognizing the looming meltdown in housing, led by troubled subprime mortgages.
and the winner is…
10/01/98 Esquire, Ken Kurson
ON JULY 17, 1998, THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSED AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF 9,337.97.
THE VERY-BAD-DAY CRASH Reliving 1987’s Black Monday, the Dow posts a 23 percent one-day drop, closing at 7,190.24. Bill Gates cans half of his staff, offering beta copies of Windows 99 as severance.
THE SLOW-DESCENT-INTO-HELL CRASH Following the Japanese model–an excruciating 60 percent slide in the Nikkei index since 1989–the Dow stumbles backward. By 2008, the average is at 3,735.19. Bill Gates sells his Apple stock for lunch money.
THE DOOMSDAY CRASH As in 1929, the Dow loses 13 percent overnight– and 89 percent in three years, hitting bottom at 1,027.18. A homeless Bill Gates barters Windows 99 for bread.